Now that each team has played its first match, it's time for me to regale you with some sophistry by putting on my pundit's hat and offering a review of where we are, what we've seen, and what it means for the rest of the tournament.
Firstly, even though we're all very short on sleep and are all losing our hearing with that constant droning of the vuvuzela, it's been really a lot of fun! The World Cup is just a special time every four years, and this one is off to a great start. It seems that every team played their first match with a fear of losing in mind, so there was a lot of defense and not that many goals. This should change now. Let's look at the situation group-by-group:
Group A:
As I write this South Africa and Uruguay just played their second match with France and Mexico to follow suit tomorrow. The hosts are in big trouble after suffering a big defeat, and because of the three goal deficit now there is really only one way they can go through: France and Mexico must play to a draw, then they must beat France AND hope that Uruguay doesn't lose to Mexico. France cannot afford to lose against Mexico because if they do, Mexico and Uruguay will be level on 4 points while the others are on 1, and they can just play a ho-hum draw and both qualify regardless of what happens in France versus South Africa.
As I write this South Africa and Uruguay just played their second match with France and Mexico to follow suit tomorrow. The hosts are in big trouble after suffering a big defeat, and because of the three goal deficit now there is really only one way they can go through: France and Mexico must play to a draw, then they must beat France AND hope that Uruguay doesn't lose to Mexico. France cannot afford to lose against Mexico because if they do, Mexico and Uruguay will be level on 4 points while the others are on 1, and they can just play a ho-hum draw and both qualify regardless of what happens in France versus South Africa.
Group B:
Argentina and South Korea will now play to determine who qualifies after only two matches and who must wait until the last match to have the chance to do so. Meanwhile Nigeria and Greece get the chance to earn points to compete with whoever loses the other match for the second spot in the round-of-16. Argentina is favored to beat South Korea so if that match goes according to form then if Greece beats Nigeria they get to play an Argentina team that will be resting some of their starters in the last match. If Nigeria wins then it'll come down to their match against South Korea.
Argentina and South Korea will now play to determine who qualifies after only two matches and who must wait until the last match to have the chance to do so. Meanwhile Nigeria and Greece get the chance to earn points to compete with whoever loses the other match for the second spot in the round-of-16. Argentina is favored to beat South Korea so if that match goes according to form then if Greece beats Nigeria they get to play an Argentina team that will be resting some of their starters in the last match. If Nigeria wins then it'll come down to their match against South Korea.
Group C:
Slovenia may be in the driver's seat but now they have to play the U.S. and England. If they can steal a point in either of those matches they'll have an excellent chance of going through, so expect to see them be very tight on defense. Algeria was in shambles in their opening game and it doesn't get any easier with England who'll be looking to eliminate them. I suspect this group will come down to goal difference.
Slovenia may be in the driver's seat but now they have to play the U.S. and England. If they can steal a point in either of those matches they'll have an excellent chance of going through, so expect to see them be very tight on defense. Algeria was in shambles in their opening game and it doesn't get any easier with England who'll be looking to eliminate them. I suspect this group will come down to goal difference.
Group D:
Germany was the most convincing team in the first set of matches but now they face Serbia and it won't be easy. Serbia was unlucky not to get a draw with Ghana. It's hard to see Australia bouncing back from that devastating defeat at the hands of the Germans, especially with Tim Cahill on suspension now, so expect Ghana to wrap up their qualification with this match. It's very possible that the Germany versus Ghana match will be a formality to determine who finishes first and who finishes second but by then they'll know what each positions means as far as who they play in the second round.
Germany was the most convincing team in the first set of matches but now they face Serbia and it won't be easy. Serbia was unlucky not to get a draw with Ghana. It's hard to see Australia bouncing back from that devastating defeat at the hands of the Germans, especially with Tim Cahill on suspension now, so expect Ghana to wrap up their qualification with this match. It's very possible that the Germany versus Ghana match will be a formality to determine who finishes first and who finishes second but by then they'll know what each positions means as far as who they play in the second round.
Group E:
The Netherlands justified the hype about them by beating an excellent Denmark team who were unlucky with the first goal they conceded. Denmark now play Cameroon to determine who lives to fight another day and who goes home, while Holland and Japan play to see who qualifies right now. If Cameroon wins against Denmark and Holland beats Japan then Cameroon get to play a team with no interest in playing very hard in their last match.
The Netherlands justified the hype about them by beating an excellent Denmark team who were unlucky with the first goal they conceded. Denmark now play Cameroon to determine who lives to fight another day and who goes home, while Holland and Japan play to see who qualifies right now. If Cameroon wins against Denmark and Holland beats Japan then Cameroon get to play a team with no interest in playing very hard in their last match.
Group F:
Italy fell victim to the ultra-defensive Paraguayan counter-attack and had to claw their way to a draw, but with what Slovakia and New Zealand showed us they still shouldn't have much trouble going through. The other spot is Paraguay's to lose.
Italy fell victim to the ultra-defensive Paraguayan counter-attack and had to claw their way to a draw, but with what Slovakia and New Zealand showed us they still shouldn't have much trouble going through. The other spot is Paraguay's to lose.
Group G:
North Korea was no pushover against Brazil but it doesn't get any easier against Portugal while Côte d'Ivoire have to play Brazil. This favors Portugal because if they beat the DPRK and Brazil win as well then again, we'll have a team playing against a team who is already qualified, so advantage Portugal.
North Korea was no pushover against Brazil but it doesn't get any easier against Portugal while Côte d'Ivoire have to play Brazil. This favors Portugal because if they beat the DPRK and Brazil win as well then again, we'll have a team playing against a team who is already qualified, so advantage Portugal.
Group H:
Switzerland beating Spain is a surprise, but not fatal, not by a long shot. Spain was spectacular today, it's amazing they didn't win, they were on par with Brazil, Germany, and Holland. Fortunately for them they play Honduras now and if they win big, as they should, then Chile might end up regretting not putting more past Honduras on the last day. Switzerland is in, as long as they don't fail to take the three points from Honduras.
Switzerland beating Spain is a surprise, but not fatal, not by a long shot. Spain was spectacular today, it's amazing they didn't win, they were on par with Brazil, Germany, and Holland. Fortunately for them they play Honduras now and if they win big, as they should, then Chile might end up regretting not putting more past Honduras on the last day. Switzerland is in, as long as they don't fail to take the three points from Honduras.
Let the good times roll!
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